Authored by the Central Coordination Office for Prevention and Control of Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance of Grupo Luz Saúde Unfortunately, the appearance of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, such as OMICRON recently discovered in South Africa, is not surprising and makes us wonder what stage of the COVID-19 pandemic we are in: at the end of the beginning, at the beginning of the end, somewhere else? What factors influence the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic? Different factors with greater or lesser unpredictability influence the evolution of the pandemic. Interaction with other viruses The way in which the SARS-COV-2 virus interacts with other respiratory viruses , such as the seasonal flu virus, which can be cooperation or competition, respectively potentiating or reducing the severity of these infections, is one of the factors that can affect the evolution of the pandemic. Duration of immunity How long infected or vaccinated people maintain their immunity is also something that will only be known as time passes and new variants emerge, knowing in advance that, like other infectious diseases, immunity is neither total nor lasting. Level of vaccination The vaccination level of a population, essential to allow increased protection against serious disease and viral transmission, conditions the existence of vulnerable subpopulations that can act as active reservoirs for community infection or reinfection. Environmental conditions Cold weather favors virus transmission, as do for other seasonally variable respiratory viruses. Virus variants No less important is the appearance of new variants , whose aggressiveness, transmissibility, and response to currently existing vaccines may determine their greater or lesser importance. Vaccines and medicines New vaccines , with greater potential for efficacy and greater coverage of variants, are in the pipeline, and may also be simpler to administer and without requiring the current logistical complexity. New drugs are being developed or being tested so that they can be used in the treatment and prevention after exposure to positive cases, with the hope of reducing the severity, duration, and long-term complications, as well as reducing transmission viral. What is the impact of the OMICRON variant? It is still too early to understand exactly what impact the OMICRON variant has on the evolution of the pandemic. Compared to the DELTA variant, which is still largely prevalent, the data currently available seem to point towards increased transmissibility , associated with the capacity for infection in people vaccinated or previously infected with other variants. Thus, it is not surprising that OMICRON will become the main variant, with rapid spread throughout the world, as evidenced by the growing number of cases in several countries. A more favorable aspect is that OMICRON may be associated with less severe forms of acute illness, with less need for hospitalizations in general, oxygen support and admission in intensive care units. The n ext few weeks will be decisive to understand whether this behavior will continue, that is, to what extent apparently benign situations in the initial phase are complicated after two to three weeks of evolution. And, in addition to acute disease, the impact of OMICRON on long-term disease (COVID) remains to be known. How to prevent virus transmission? Regardless of which variants of SARS-CoV-2 are concerned, the general principles for preventing virus transmission are the same : Use of a mask in closed places, whenever sharing it with people with whom you do not normally live; Use of a mask in open places, whenever it is not possible to maintain the safety distance that protects from droplets emanating from speech or coughing; Practice professional and social contact break whenever respiratory symptoms (not devaluing it) or loss of taste or smell are present until adequate testing for SARS-CoV-2 and medical evaluation; Practice professional and social contact break whenever there is a risky contact with positive cases; Frequent hand hygiene after contact with surfaces of common use, coughing or sneezing and contact with the mask; Reduction of social contact when the mask is removed, particularly at mealtimes; Ventilation of homes and other spaces. Also remember that you must continue to contact the health authorities via the SNS24 line, as you have done until now. The importance of vaccination Vaccination against COVID-19 is one of the most important preventive measures for individual and group protection, despite its known limitations. Although cases of reinfection with the OMICRON variant have been documented, these tend to be less severe, probably many of it without symptoms, as with other infections for which we are vaccinated. Vaccination boosters are essential for maintaining an adequate immune defense state and are therefore strongly advised. Vaccines have proven to be safe, with very few side effects or major complications. The role of rapid antigen tests The possibility that rapid antigen tests have to be carried out on a large scale helps to control the pandemic by quickly identifying positive cases so that they can be isolated, limiting contagion . However, it must be remembered that these tests, in particular self-tests, are more likely to have false negative results. As a general rule, especially when there are symptoms possibly related to COVID-19, a negative result in a rapid test does not, by itself, exclude a SARS-CoV-2 infection. This result has to be evaluated together with other clinical information and with each person epidemiological background. Therefore, if you have symptoms that could be related to COVID-19 and you have a negative result in a rapid test you should be vigilant, restrict contacts, reinforce measures to prevent contagion and repeat the rapid test after 2-3 days or seek health care advice. Even if you are not infected with SARS-CoV-2, these measures will help prevent the spread of another respiratory infection you may have. Preparing for Christmas and New Years in advance The preparation for Christmas and New Year must start now. Keep to the health authority advice on vaccinations and boosters. Adopt protective measures now to reduce the likelihood of becoming infected and being a virus carrier or becoming ill at this time: Wear a mask as indicated above; Avoid proximity at mealtimes or at other times when you are not wearing a mask, keeping as far away as possible, ideally not sitting face to face or side by side with people you do not live with; Do not devalue symptoms or contacts with positive cases; Cancel events that you have scheduled if you experience symptoms that could be related to COVID-19 or have contacted with positive cases, even if you have a negative test; Protect the most vulnerable, such as the elderly, by keeping masks on until mealtime, reserving places at the table with adequate distance and preferably not close to children or other people who do not normally wear a mask. Adopting prevention measures is your contribution so that everyone has a happier and healthier Christmas and New Year! Sources Kupferschmidt K, Vogel G. How bad is Omicron? New variant appears to evade immunity and shows signs of spreading more rapidly. Science 10 dezembro 2021. GOV.UK. COVID-19 response: Autumn and winter plan 2021 . The content published in the Health Guide is intended for the general public and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not replace individual medical assessment, diagnosis, or personalized clinical advice from a qualified healthcare professional. The content is produced or reviewed by physicians and other healthcare professionals at Hospital da Luz and is based on the knowledge available at the time of publication or the most recent update, as indicated at the beginning of each item.
